ICRA and Creditinfo Tanzania launch first credit rating agency for Tanzania institutions

Dar Es Salaam, 24th January 2024 – Creditinfo Tanzania, provider of credit information and risk management solutions, and ICRA (International Credit Rating Agency) have partnered to launch the ICRA Rating Agency, the first credit rating agency locally based in Tanzania.

The joint venture will provide credit rating and evaluation services to Tanzanian financial institutions, creating for the financial industry. Combined, ICRA and Creditinfo’s Tanzania team bring decades of experience and practical knowledge in credit risk management and analysis to support and improve credit assessment in Tanzania.

Adv Hassan Mansur, Local Director of ICRA Rating Agency Limited said: “We are delighted to launch Tanzania’s first credit rating agency that is fully geared towards strengthening the economy through providing credit rating services that are tailored to the African market. Our partnership with Creditinfo will provide ample opportunities and offer a competitive edge for various institutions, most especially the Tanzanian institutions in the International Market.”

Edwin Urasa, CEO of CreditInfo Tanzania said: “At Creditinfo, we are committed to sustainably growing our business and identifying ideal opportunities to build strong and profitable credit rating agencies, while helping more local citizens and businesses access finance. Our partnership with ICRA marks an important milestone for us and gives us the opportunity to improve the standards of credit assessment. Tanzania is an optimal market for us to introduce this service because of its tremendous promise for inclusive financial services. This venture will set a new standard in credit rating and promote financial health and empowerment across Tanzania.”

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About Creditinfo  

Established in 1997 and headquartered in London, UK, Creditinfo is a provider of credit information and risk management solutions worldwide. As one of the fastest-growing companies in its field, Creditinfo facilitates access to finance, through intelligent information, software and decision analytics solutions.

With more than 30 credit bureaus running today, Creditinfo has the most considerable global presence in this field of credit risk management, with a significantly greater footprint than competitors. For decades it has provided business information, risk management and credit bureau solutions to some of the largest lenders, governments and central banks globally to increase financial inclusion and generate economic growth by allowing credit access for SMEs and individuals.

For more information, please visit tz.creditinfo.com

www.creditinfo.com

 

About ICRA Rating Agency

ICRA Rating Agency Limited has been accredited for being the First Ever Credit Rating Agency approved by Bank of Tanzania (Central Bank of Tanzania) to which we are the only regional central bank approved credit rating agency offering credit rating services. Our organisation also gets the special status of ecai (external credit assessment institution).

ICRA has an expert team with a combined experience of more than 25 years in Audit, Inspection, Financial Analysis, Credit Research, Banking, Compliance, AML and Certification. Our ratings significantly influence corporate and financial institutions to achieve better market standing. ICRA ratings aim to help various corporations and institutions demonstrate their financial capability.

For more information, please visit www.icrallc.com

Nova Credit and Creditinfo Bridge Cross-Border Credit Access for Ukrainians

NEW YORK – January 17, 2024 – Nova Credit, the leading cross-border and alternative credit analytics company, has announced a strategic collaboration with Creditinfo, a global service provider for credit information and risk management solutions, to help Ukrainians gain access to the necessary financial services needed to effectively rebuild their lives abroad. The partnership is powered by Nova Credit’s Credit Passport®, the only cross-border credit solution enabling newcomers to access their foreign credit history when applying for financial products in their new home country.

Bridging this critical data gap, Nova Credit and Creditinfo are providing Ukrainian expats and refugees with the tools they need to get started on the right financial footing upon arrival.Since March 2022, the U.S., U.K., and Canada – Nova Credit’s largest partner markets – have seen a combined 840,000 Ukrainians move*, and that number is expected to grow as the Russia-Ukraine War continues. As many will seek permanent residency in these new countries, a lack of credit history will introduce an obstacle to accessing financial services as, historically, new-to-country individuals have had no way to carry over their credit history and financial identity. This presents a challenge for both new arrivals who are looking to re-establish their lives, in addition to lenders who lack the credit data needed to provide their financial services and products to this newcomer population.

With this partnership, credit data from International Bureau of Credit Histories (IBCH) Ukraine (a Creditinfo credit bureau) – one of the three main credit bureaus in Ukraine – can be instantly translated into a local-equivalent credit report and score so that lenders who use the Credit Passport® solution can assess the credit risk of new-to-country Ukrainian applicants. Nova Credit’s partners using the Credit Passport® today include American Express, HSBC, Scotiabank, and Verizon.

“Of the many credit-excluded migrant populations around the world, few are in more dire need of support than the Ukrainian people,” said Misha Esipov, co-founder and CEO of Nova Credit. “Credit access isn’t just a piece of the puzzle; it’s a lifeline for the countless Ukrainians uprooted by the chaos of war. We set out to build this partnership with Creditinfo and IBCH Ukraine from the onset of the war, and our teams have worked hard to enable this integration. Together, we’re using data to bridge a world where everyone, regardless of where they come from, has a fair shot at building a brighter future.”

“We are delighted to partner with Nova Credit to help Ukrainians arriving in the U.S. gain access to financial services and credit checks as they look to settle and rebuild their lives,” said Satrajit Saha, Global CEO of Creditinfo Group. “Among the many challenges facing Ukrainians, is finding ways to access finance. Having a positive credit history is vital to doing many things in the U.S. such as renting a property and securing a job. This is why the information we can provide through our partnership with Nova Credit is so important – it offers the data financial institutions, employers and landlords need to provide basic services to Ukrainians wanting to rebuild their lives.”

The Credit Passport® Ukraine data integration is available for deployment into any credit risk or underwriting process across the U.S., U.K., Canada, U.A.E, and Singapore. To learn more about how to get started with Credit Passport®, visit: www.novacredit.com/business/credit-passport

*Source: 380,000 into the U.S. according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 250,000 into the U.K. according to UNHCR, and 210,000 into Canada under the CUAET program.

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ABOUT CREDITINFO

Established in 1997 and headquartered in London, UK, Creditinfo is a provider of credit information and risk management solutions worldwide. As one of the fastest-growing companies in its field, Creditinfo facilitates access to finance, through intelligent information, software and decision analytics solutions.

With more than 30 credit bureaus running today, Creditinfo has the most considerable global presence in this field of credit risk management, with a significantly greater footprint than competitors. For decades it has provided business information, risk management and credit bureau solutions to some of the largest lenders, governments and central banks globally to increase financial inclusion and generate economic growth by allowing credit access for SMEs and individuals.

For more information, please visit www.creditinfo.com

ABOUT NOVA CREDIT

Nova Credit is a credit infrastructure and analytics company that enables businesses to grow responsibly by harnessing consumer credit data. The company leverages its unique set of data sources, bank-grade infrastructure and compliance framework, and proprietary credit expertise to help lenders fill the gaps that exist in traditional credit analytics. Nova Credit serves as the bridge between data and credit excellence, providing a comprehensive suite of solutions designed to give lenders across various industries – including finance, fintech, property management, telecom, and automotive – a competitive edge in the open finance era. Its cross-border credit product, Credit Passport®, cash flow underwriting product, Cash Atlas®, and income verification product, Verification of Income, are used by leading organizations like American Express, Verizon, HSBC, SoFi, Scotiabank, and Yardi. Nova Credit is backed by investors including Canapi Ventures, Kleiner Perkins, General Catalyst, and Index Ventures as well as executives from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Citi. Learn more at https://www.novacredit.com or reach out to connect@novacredit.com.

An excellent Account Information Service is based on the accuracy of the categorization of transactions

In 2021, Creditinfo Estonia received permission from the Financial Supervision Authority to start offering account information services in Estonia, which later expanded to the markets of Latvia and Lithuania. Today, we have been offering the account information service on the market for almost two years. The account information service is based on the PSD2 directive. We have access to the transaction data of customers of banks and financial institutions using a secure data transmission channel and customer consent.

Account information categorization is the first and most trivial account data processing that creates customer value. In addition to the primary value, categorization is also an input for all subsequent, significantly more value-creating services (for example, debt risk assessment). Without categorization, each time finding, analyzing and displaying value from account information becomes too resource-intensive, so the end user would have to wait a relatively long time to get a result from their data.

Unfortunately, categorization is worthless if the accuracy and quality of the categories are low. Of course, every transaction on a bank account is not an input for assessing a person’s credit risk. When determining credit risk, it is critically important that the accuracy of the categorization of transactions required for analysis is as high as possible. This is to prevent credit losses for companies and overdue debts for private individuals, directly affecting both interest groups’ reputations.

The main input from categorization is related to income

 

The primary input from the account information for credit risk assessment is salary/income and the volume of financial obligations (loans, installment payments, leases, etc.) per month. In addition, various red and green indicators affect a person’s credit risk. For example, casino visits and bailiff payments can be classified under red and insurance charges under green.
To ensure the accuracy of the categorization, Creditinfo has given the first priority to categorizing transactions important for credit risk assessment across the Baltics. However, today, we can state that the overall accuracy of categorizing the account information service offered by Creditinfo across the Baltics exceeds 90%.
 
A more accurate percentage value can only be estimated by looking at the categorization of a specific bank account since the accuracy of the categorization is directly related to the transactions that the bank account reflects.
 
Accurate categorization of account information is also essential for ensuring know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) rules for all companies to which KYC and AML rules apply to a greater or lesser extent. For example, too much cash mobility in an account can mean potential money laundering. There is not, and should not be, a definite rule as to what amount constitutes money laundering in the case of a large amount of cash in the account. Many companies operate in a sector where a lot of cash moves. However, this does not make these entrepreneurs suspects of money laundering. If the cash movement is justified, then the doubt is also grounded.
 
In summary, it can be said that the bank statement is a valuable new data collection that helps to assess a person’s credit risk better. The basis for a more accurate evaluation is categorizing bank account transactions of excellent quality. At the same time, it must be remembered that achieving 100% categorization accuracy is impossible. Service providers are constantly changing; people go on trips, new companies are born, older companies disappear, purchases are made in various domestic and foreign online stores, etc. These are all reasons why there are always companies whose payment transaction categories cannot be specified as soon as possible.

Visit creditinfo.ee/en for more information.

Ivo Vallau

Open Banking Product Manager, Ceditinfo Estonia.

Creditinfo appoints Satrajit Saha as new Global CEO

Former CEO of TransUnion Europe – Satrajit Saha – brings his expertise to Creditinfo, planning to drive growth across its credit bureaus globally.

London – 29th November 2023: Creditinfo, a global service provider for credit information and risk management solutions, has today announced the appointment of Satrajit Saha as its Global Chief Executive Officer (CEO). With over 20 years of experience in banking and credit bureau, Satrajit will drive the growth of Creditinfo and the maturity of its credit bureaus globally. He joins the company from TransUnion Europe, where he held the position of CEO for the last five years.

In his role, Satrajit will lead Creditinfo in advancing its strategic initiatives, with a particular focus on promoting financial inclusion worldwide. Drawing on his rich background in the credit information industry, spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe, he will lead the next phase of Creditinfo’s growth on a global level as it strives to become a truly global bureau and the leader for facilitating access to finance in both developed and emerging markets.

As an experienced strategic leader, Satrajit has an impressive reputation in the financial services space. At TransUnion Europe, he led the board of all TransUnion’s European owned entities. Before joining TransUnion Europe, he was Chief Business Officer at TransUnion India, where he was responsible for crafting and executing TransUnion’s CIBIL’s market strategy. He was also Cards Head, Africa Region, at Barclays Bank.

Satrajit Saha, newly appointed Global CEO at Creditinfo said: “I am honored to take on the role of Global CEO at Creditinfo, a company that is at the forefront of promoting financial inclusion. Together with the talented team at Creditinfo, we will continue to leverage innovative data sets and solutions to bridge information gaps and create opportunities to facilitate access to finance for individuals and businesses globally.”

Monty Ismail, Director at Levine Leichtman Capital Partners and Creditinfo Group Board member said: “We are delighted to welcome Satrajit “Satty” Saha as our new Global Chief Executive Officer. He is an accomplished executive with successful leadership experience relevant to our business, including his time as CEO of TransUnion UK. Today marks the beginning of a new chapter for Creditinfo, and we are excited to see Satty, with extensive knowledge of our key markets, take over as CEO. We are looking forward to working with Satty in continuing to expand our global footprint and unlock access to finance for millions of consumers and businesses worldwide. On behalf of the Board of Directors, I would like to thank Paul Randall for his important contribution as CEO. He has been key to our success, and we are all grateful for his leadership and dedication.”

He will begin his new role as Creditinfo CEO on 1st January 2024 and will report directly to the Creditinfo Group Board.

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About Creditinfo

Established in 1997 and headquartered in London, UK, Creditinfo is a provider of credit information and risk management solutions worldwide. As one of the fastest-growing companies in its field, Creditinfo facilitates access to finance, through intelligent information, software and decision analytics solutions.

With more than 30 credit bureaus running today, Creditinfo has the most considerable global presence in this field of credit risk management, with a significantly greater footprint than competitors. For decades it has provided business information, risk management and credit bureau solutions to some of the largest, lenders, governments and central banks globally to increase financial inclusion and generate economic growth by allowing credit access for SMEs and individuals.

For more information, please visit www.creditinfo.com

A Master’s Thesis that highlighted the importance of timely submission of the Annual Report

In May 2023, Creditinfo Eesti announced a prize fund to recognize students who have addressed research questions in the fields of money laundering and sanctions in their research. In cooperation with the COBALT law firm and the representatives of the State Money Laundering Bureau, the evaluation committee chose Victoria Helenurme, a master’s student from the University of Tartu, as the winner for her master’s thesis on the topic “Prediction of deletion from the business register due to non-submission of the annual financial report using the example of Estonian companies”.

Victoria Helenurm is from Tallinn and graduated cum laude from the University of Tartu, majoring in Marketing & Financial Management. Today, she works as a financial controller in a company offering energy-saving indoor climate and renewable energy solutions and sees her future in business.

We had an interview with her on the journey of her thesis topic:

 The topic of your thesis was “Prediction of deletion from the business register due to non-submission of the annual financial report using the example of Estonian companies” – how did you arrive at this topic?

At the beginning of the summer of 2022, discussions began with people who eventually became my thesis supervisors. My main desire was to write a paper on a current topic in society. This year, the Estonian state penalties for not submitting the annual report became harsher, and in cooperation with my supervisors, we saw that there is a public interest in this area of research and also sufficient data for research.

 Why was this topic worth researching?

 If, as a person, we take a loan, for example, we are understanding the obligations that come with taking a loan. For me, founding a company or being on its board is a somewhat similar responsibility – as a manager, we have assumed the responsibility, among other things, to report on the progress of our company’s business to the public.

Unfortunately, while we are mostly exemplary in servicing loans, tens of thousands of Estonian companies fail to submit their annual reports on time.

 I cannot say whether this difference is due to, among other things, the fact that the penalties for not submitting the annual report have been relatively lenient. But it is certainly worthwhile for us to become more aware that such behavior is problematic.

After all the state of our countries businesses is based largely according to the data of the Business Register. If we have thousands of active companies that do not fulfill their reporting obligations, the financial forecasts, risk analyses, business decisions, etc. of the state, lenders and other parties will suffer in its quality.

The submission deadline (6 months after the end of the financial year) is a very lenient deadline. The business landscape is more and more unpredictable, so the knowledge of the previous year’s business results that arrives half a year later is already outdated. As is typical of our e-government, we would expect that at least certain types of companies could be assigned a much earlier submission obligation to help update our economic data.

 What facts became clearer as part of the research?

In my research, I tried to find an answer to the question of whether the deregistration of a company can be predicted purely by looking at how the company’s management has cared about the obligation to submit an annual report in its previous business life.

The Estonian financial world is very much a believer in financial ratios when assessing the business health of a company. I tried to see if it is possible to convincingly assess the business risk of deleting the company by completely setting aside the financial statement.

The studied dataset also proved this – a significantly more accurate forecasting method than financial ratios (prediction accuracy approx. 63%) was the observation of the past behavior of board members (prediction accuracy almost 82%). It can be said that if there is a member of the board of the company who has either delayed or failed to submit the financial year report in previous companies, it is a very clear business risk, which indicates the risk of deletion of the company in question.

 How could this research topic be continued?

Although I myself rather do not plan to continue my studies in a doctoral program, I definitely see possibilities for expanding this research topic. The obtained research results could certainly be compared with our neighboring countries – to assess whether in Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, etc. there are similar relationships between corporate delisting and board members’ past due diligence.

Another immediate opportunity for investigation is provided by the amendments to the law that entered into force this year, which toughened the penalties for failure to submit an annual report, among other things. Repeating this research in 5+ years would give an idea of whether business behavior has improved in terms of reporting obligations.

We were very pleased with Victoria’s research, as her research clearly connected with the general theme of our competition – the data of the Business Register and national registers in general are the main factors when applying the KYC principle. Financial data from the company that is not submitted on time or is completely missing, is a clear danger signal when investigating the background of your business partner.

When it comes to risk management – both when creating a customer relationship and during the existence of a customer relationship, up-to-date data from the business register is very necessary. Does the company actually operate; whether the data there (especially the field of activity and financial data) are correct (especially when it comes to the application of enhanced due diligence measures). The given data helps to understand the customer’s activity profile.

If the client does not submit annual reports, it is clear that it may be a riskier client, and this should be taken into account when establishing or monitoring a business relationship in order to mitigate the risk.

Urmas Pai –  KYC&Fraud Global Product Manager, Head of the evaluation committee

Creditinfo Estonia

www.creditinfo.ee

Creditinfo’s Account Information Service Product

In the spring of 2021, the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority authorized Creditinfo Estonia to offer Account Information Service in the Estonian market. In the autumn of 2021, the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority also granted the authorization to provide Account Information Service to the Latvian and Lithuanian markets. This act added to our product portfolio a new, exciting product that benefits our customers in the short and long run. As of today, we have had the Account Information Service in our cross-Baltic product portfolio for two years.

About the Account Information Service

The opportunity to provide Account Information Service emerged when the European Union (EU) Parliament and the EU Council adopted a new directive regulating payment services in the EU internal market on November 25, 2015 (PSD2), which emphasized the expansion of open banking in Europe.

Open Banking refers to provide third-party financial service providers open access to transactional data of bank and financial institution customers, using secure data transmission channels and customer consent.

The Account Information Service is a part of the Open Banking initiative, defined as an online service where the service user (customer) is identified and authenticated via strong identification and authentification means. The service itself means transmitting customer’s bank account data through a secure channel to third party from whom the customer wishes to apply a credit product.

How does Creditinfo provide the Account Information Service?

Using Creditinfo Estonia’s solution, both individuals, which is regulated by the aforementioned payment service directive, and companies can transmit their account information to third parties.

Beside financial sector the possibilities of the Account Information Service can be successfully used in application processes in various sectors. Previously mentioned customer consent is obviously obligatory.

Different sectors that can benefit from account information:

  • Public sector companies that provide subsidies to individuals and businesses, where the information in the account details creates significant value when determining subsidies;
  • Insurance sector companies, which can use behavioral information from the bank account for determining insurance premiums or simplifying the insurance incident evidence burden;
  • Other sectors where value from account information help to create better personalized offers for their products and services.

The strength of our Account Information Service is categorization.

The greatest value of the Account Information Service provided by Creditinfo Estonia comes from categorizing account transactions, which our clients (data recipients) can conveniently use in their business decisions.

Categorization is a solution that can and should be continuously improved over time. Precise and detailed categorization is a top priority for Creditinfo Estonia’s Account Information Service.

The data from the Account Information Service serves also as an input for our Account Information Service Report. The report helps to make more informed business decisions both internally and towards our client’s customers. The report highlights all the key ratios, indicators, “green and red flags” and much more that can be extracted from account information.

The report is designed in a way that can be customized to meet the client’s needs, which make it a tool for everyday business decisions.

More information about the service: https://creditinfo.ee/en/avoid-debts/psd2/

Creditinfo: “The BIC reform will make it possible to take a big step towards financial inclusion.”

Reform of BICs, impact of inflation on solvency, feedback from the Checkinfo service – an overview with Sidimohamed Abouchikhi, Regional Director for Francophone Africa of Creditinfo Group, and Director of the Board of Directors of Checkinfo.

Finance News Hebdo: In this inflationary context, what assessment do you make of individuals’ and businesses’ insolvency risks?

Sidimohamed Abouchikhi: Inflation first impacted the distribution of loans after the successive increases in the critical rate (+150 bps), partially passed on to the interest rates applied by credit institutions (+53 bps). If we compare the first six months of the year 2023, we see a virtual stagnation in requests for the granting of credit, whereas usually, we have an increase between 5 and 8% (minimum), or even more than the part of individuals. For businesses, the decline in demand is mitigated when government support programs are included. To come back to your question, inflation naturally induces a reduction in purchasing power and impacts payment habits. We see this with the increase in non-payments which is undoubtedly significant but less than that observed internationally. The evolution of unpaid debts in number is more marked among individuals, whereas in terms of outstanding, the majority is among companies. All in all, we are on a return to normative levels of due payments. Not at the same level as 2019, but improving in 2020 and 2021.
FNH: After a long wait, the government has finally adopted the bill dedicated to Credit Information Bureaux. What are the main contributions of this reform?
 
Sidimohamed: The long-awaited reform of the Credit Information Bureaux (BIC) will allow better control of systemic risks and better accessibility to financing. It will also make it possible to take a big step towards financial inclusion and ensure that the BICs collect other sources of information besides traditional data. This so-called alternative data from major billers, such as telecom operators, water and electricity suppliers, insurance companies and others, will compensate for the lack of historical information on unbanked customers. The availability of this information will allow financing institutions to open up, with less apprehension, to new customers (individuals and VSMEs) who do not have a banking history but justify good payment habits. And this while reducing the use of guarantees. I remind you that of the 53% of the population with a bank account, less than 30% have access to credit. Therefore, this reform aims to widen access to financing for this population outside the circuit.
FNH: What are Creditinfo Group’s priorities in Morocco and West Africa in the short to medium term?
 
Sidimohamed: With more than 30 active credit bureaus, Creditinfo now has the most robust global presence in this sector. For over 25 years, we’ve provided credit bureau and risk management solutions and trusted business information to some of the world’s largest lenders, governments and central banks. The objective is to increase financial inclusion and generate economic growth by allowing access to credit for SMEs and individuals. Creditinfo is the industry leader in Africa, with a presence in 18 countries. The company which continues to be strengthened with two new acquisitions dating back barely a month, in Uganda and Namibia.
FNH: Checkinfo, Bank Al-Maghrib’s delegate for managing the irregular check centralization service, started its activities in April 2021. What is your experience feedback to date?
 
Sidimohamed: After two years of activity, and according to the feedback from our users, we can say that Checkinfo has a significant positive impact on their cash flow and the hassles associated with collection. Indeed, it should be known that 84% of the checks checked and posted irregularly come from accounts in prohibited banking. Therefore, these people are already in banking irregularity because of bad checks or other, and continue to issue checks which, of course, will be returned unpaid. Today, Checkinfo allows its users to protect themselves against these frauds. Moreover, the efficiency rate of the service is 99.6%. Also, you should know that out of all the checks that are checked, 13% are irregular.
Article translated in English as first seen on Finance News Hebdo 

For more inofmormation visit: www.checkinfo.ma

Transport business in the Baltics is in recession, with only Lithuania experiencing a slightly brighter picture

Coface records recovery in air transport, but pre-pandemic figures not yet reached.

The transport sector is the one with the highest improvement in risk scores in the latest Coface Quarterly Survey, although the global macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain. Coface experts note that air transport forecasts and new aircraft orders are providing greater optimism. Transport business is rated higher in Western Europe, the Middle East and Japan, while in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), including the Baltic states, the transport sector continues to be rated the highest risk. The transport sector in Estonia and Latvia is facing more challenges this year, while in Lithuania the situation has started to improve since Q2, with a decrease in bankruptcies and an increase in the forecasts for businesses.

According to Coface experts, the higher scores in the transport sector are mainly due to the recovery of the Chinese economy and global tourism, as well as to public policy decisions, such as the priority given to rail traffic in Germany. However, overall risks to the transport sector remain very high due to high energy costs and demand still below pre-pandemic levels.

Head of Coface Baltics, Mindaugas Sventickas, points out that it is air transport that has been the activity most affected in the global transport sector, and that it is now recovering rapidly. This is due to the gradual economic recovery from the second half of 2021 onwards, significantly influenced by the opening up of Japan (end of 2022) and China (early 2023), which has facilitated travel conditions for international tourists.

The Coface survey shows that while the number of commercial flights has increased and is now even above pre-pandemic levels, seat occupancy rates remain lower. For example, in the Asia-Pacific region, total passenger traffic in April 2023 increased by 171% compared to April last year, thanks in particular to China. Despite the strong growth, demand in this region remains lower than in 2019 (-18% in April 2023 compared to April 2019).

New orders for Airbus and Boeing aircraft are rising: aiming to fly greener and save fuel

In Western Europe and the United States, Airbus and Boeing have also reported an increase in aircraft orders, reaching 774 Boeing and 820 Airbus aircraft in 2022. At the 2022 Paris Air Show, a number of new orders were announced, with Air IndiGo ordering 500 A320 aircraft and Air India ordering 250 Airbus and 220 Boeing aircraft. According to the experts at Coface, this acceleration in the aerospace industry has prompted the decision to improve the risk assessment of the transport sector in some countries, e.g. France. Many of the production processes of Airbus are carried out in France, with production sites spread over Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. This has contributed to a better assessment of the transport sector across Western Europe.

“It is also worth noting that the main players in the air transport industry are pursuing a strategy that takes environmental concerns into account. On the one hand, this motivates manufacturers to innovate in order to develop ‘cleaner’ aircraft. On the other hand, it encourages airlines to upgrade their fleets to use less energy,” comments Sventickas.

Cargo transport by sea decreases by almost one third

The situation is different in maritime transport, where activity is slowing down slightly after two exceptional years. Declining sea freight rates, high energy costs and stagflation are adversely affecting the financial performance of sea carriers. The revenues of Maersk and CMA CGM in Q1 2023 decreased by 26% and 30% respectively compared to Q1 last year, although they remain significantly higher than in Q1 2019.

This drop in revenue is primarily due to price effects (a fall in freight rates), while the drop in volumes is smaller, with a 3% annual decrease in the container index for January–April 2023. This drop in volumes is partly passed on to rail and motor transport, which is primarily used for the transport of cargo from ports.

Passenger transport in the Baltic States has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels

When analysing air passenger flows in the Baltic states for the period 2019–2023, the highest passenger traffic is traditionally observed in Q3 of each year. After the pandemic, air passenger traffic in all of the Baltic states, although slowly increasing, has not yet reached the levels recorded in 2019. For example, in Q3 2019, the number of air passengers in Estonia reached 954,000, in Latvia 2,299,000 and in Lithuania 1,821,000. In the same period last year (Q3 2022), the figures were 841,000 (88%), 1,711,000 (71%) and 1,677,000 (92%) respectively. According to Eurostat and Coface, the total number of passengers carried by air in the Baltic states in 2022 was 13,434, compared to 6,094 in 2021, 4,657 in 2020 and 17,548 in 2019.

The situation in rail passenger transport is slightly better. For example, in Q3 2019, the number of passengers in Estonia was 2,105,000, in Latvia 5,256,000 and in Lithuania 1,287,000. In the same period last year, the figures were 1,837,000 (87%), 4,835,000 (92%) and 1,292,000 (100%) respectively. The total number of passengers carried by rail in the Baltic states in 2022 was 27,289, compared to 21,069 in 2021, 22,085 in 2020 and 31,986 in 2019. In Q1 of this year, the figure for the Baltic countries was 6,485.

Sventickas notes that the Lithuanian transport sector is distinguished from other Baltic countries by more optimistic forecasts for 2023: “Although the situation in the Lithuanian transport sector deteriorated in the first quarter of this year, we have seen some positive trends since the second quarter of this year: the transport of freight by sea and water has stabilised and the transport of freight by land has returned to almost pre-pandemic levels. Since February this year, the forecasts of transport companies in Lithuania have become more stable, while previously they had been declining for several months.”

Creditinfo: Optimism of Lithuanian transport companies is good news for almost 200,000 employees in the sector

According to 2022 data, Lithuania’s transport and storage sector generated 11.2% of the country’s GDP, which is 2.6 times more than the average for other EU countries. In total, there are currently 8,568 transport and logistics companies in Lithuania, employing 171,300 people, i.e. a quarter more than in 2019.

Jekaterina Rojaka, Head of Business Development and Strategy at Creditinfo Lietuva, points out that the majority (72%) of companies in the transport sector in Lithuania are involved in road freight transport. According to the data of July this year, even 6,195 out of 8,568 transport companies registered in Lithuania indicate that their main activity is transportation of goods by land. Transport accounts for over 55% of Lithuania’s total exports of services. The number of air and water transport companies is 21 and 37 respectively; 2,233 companies in the sector provide storage and transport-related activities and 82 companies provide postal and courier services.

“During the pandemic, the risk exposure of Lithuanian transport companies increased due to travel restrictions, changes in the demand for goods, and then the rise in fuel prices,” says Rojaka. “In 2022, there was a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies in the transport sector, which started to stabilise this year. In the first half of this year, bankruptcies in the transport sector accounted for only 6% of all company bankruptcies, compared to 24% in the trade sector and 20% in the construction sector. In total, 35 transport service companies have gone bankrupt since the beginning of the year, compared to 50 companies in the sector that went into bankruptcy in the same period last year.”

Rojaka says that although the number of bankruptcies of transport companies has decreased, the number of new companies has slowed down slightly: last year, despite bankruptcies, new companies were actively registering, while in the first four months of this year that number has contracted by 2%. According to a representative of the credit bureau, transport companies have started to borrow more, and the average debt of a company has increased by approximately 35%. There is also a lower number of companies with a low risk of bankruptcy, that is 58.1%, compared to the overall assessment of Lithuanian business of 69.5%. The share of companies in the transport sector experiencing financial difficulties in 2022 is lower than the national average, and amounts to 13.2% (compared to 17.6% for the economy as a whole).

“With the slowdown in domestic consumption in the EU, transport service providers continue to face challenges this year, with competition in the sector increasing due to limited demand, and service fees shrinking. Waterborne transport has seen a particularly sharp fall: The Baltic Dry index contracted by 57% over the year, and this year similar trends have been observed in road transport,” explains Rojaka. “The best short-term prospects for the sector at the moment are for airlines, which are steadily both increasing the number of flights and trying to rebuild the revenues lost in the pandemic. With inflation gradually slowing and demand stabilising, the situation for land and water transport companies should improve next year.”

Creditinfo Lithuania.

Visit: www.lt.creditinfo.com

www.creditinfo.com

Risk Management Framework

Risk management is an essential function for any bank, as it helps to protect the bank’s financial position, reputation, and long-term viability. An effective risk management framework consists of several key components that work together to identify, assess, and manage risks.

Risk Governance

The first key component of an effective risk management framework is risk governance. This involves establishing clear risk management policies, procedures, and guidelines that align with the bank’s overall strategy and objectives. The bank’s board of directors and senior management should be actively involved in setting risk management policies and overseeing the bank’s risk management activities.

Risk Identification

The second key component is risk identification. The bank should have a comprehensive risk identification process in place to identify all potential risks associated with its business activities, products, and services. This includes identifying internal and external risks such as credit risk, operational risk, market risk, and compliance risk.

Risk Assessment

Once risks are identified, the bank should assess the likelihood and impact of each identified risk to determine its potential impact on the bank’s overall operations, financial position, and reputation. This includes assessing the potential impact of risks on the bank’s customers, employees, and other stakeholders.

Risk Mitigation

The bank should develop and implement risk mitigation strategies to manage and reduce the likelihood and impact of identified risks. This may include implementing internal controls, establishing risk limits, and developing contingency plans.

Risk Monitoring

An effective risk management framework should include ongoing risk monitoring to ensure that the framework is functioning as intended. This involves continuously monitoring the bank’s risk management activities to identify emerging risks and ensure that existing risks are being effectively managed.

Risk Reporting

The bank should have a robust risk reporting framework in place to provide timely and accurate information on risk exposures and mitigation activities to the board of directors, senior management, and other stakeholders. Effective risk reporting helps ensure that the bank’s management team has the information they need to make informed decisions about risk management activities.

Risk Culture

Finally, an effective risk management framework should foster a risk-aware culture throughout the organization. This involves ensuring that all employees understand their roles and responsibilities in managing risks and are held accountable for their actions. A strong risk culture helps to ensure that risk management activities are integrated into the bank’s day-to-day operations.

In conclusion, an effective risk management framework is essential for banks to identify, assess, and manage risks. The key components of such a framework include risk governance, risk identification, risk assessment, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, risk reporting, and risk culture. By implementing an effective risk management framework, banks can effectively manage risks and protect their financial position, reputation, and long-term viability.

Joe Bowerbank,

Business Development, Creditinfo Group.

www.creditinfo.com

Digital Transformation in Credit Risk Management: What You Need to Know

The rise of digital technologies is transforming the financial industry, and credit risk management is no exception. With the increasing use of digital channels for financial transactions, there is a growing need for credit risk management strategies that can effectively manage risks in these channels. In this blog post, we will explore the concept of digital transformation in credit risk management and discuss some of the key trends and best practices in this area.

What is Digital Transformation in Credit Risk Management?

Digital transformation in credit risk management involves the use of digital technologies to manage credit risk more effectively. This includes the use of advanced analytics and machine learning to analyze large amounts of data in real-time, as well as the development of digital platforms that enable faster and more efficient credit risk management processes.

One of the key benefits of digital transformation in credit risk management is the ability to analyze data more effectively. By using advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms, financial institutions can analyze large amounts of data in real-time, identifying trends and patterns that may be indicative of credit risk. This can help financial institutions make more informed lending decisions, reducing the risk of default on loans and other credit products.

Another benefit of digital transformation in credit risk management is the development of digital platforms that enable faster and more efficient credit risk management processes. For example, some financial institutions are developing digital platforms that enable borrowers to apply for loans online, with the platform automatically analyzing the borrower’s credit risk and providing a decision in real-time. This can significantly reduce the time and cost associated with traditional lending processes, making it easier for borrowers to access credit.

Key Trends and Best Practices in Digital Transformation in Credit Risk Management

There are several key trends and best practices in digital transformation in credit risk management that financial institutions should be aware of:

Use of advanced analytics and machine learning: Financial institutions should leverage advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms to analyze large amounts of data in real-time, identifying trends and patterns that may be indicative of credit risk.

Development of digital platforms: Financial institutions should develop digital platforms that enable faster and more efficient credit risk management processes. These platforms should be user-friendly and easy to access, making it easier for borrowers to apply for loans and access credit.

Integration with other digital platforms: Financial institutions should integrate their credit risk management platforms with other digital platforms, such as mobile banking apps and online marketplaces, to provide a seamless and integrated experience for borrowers.

Investment in cybersecurity: Financial institutions should invest in cybersecurity measures to protect against cyber threats and ensure the security of customer data.

Conclusion

Digital transformation is transforming the financial industry, and credit risk management is no exception. By leveraging digital technologies such as advanced analytics, machine learning, and digital platforms, financial institutions can manage credit risk more effectively, reducing the risk of default on loans and other credit products. As the financial landscape continues to evolve, it is likely that new digital technologies and best practices will emerge, requiring credit risk management professionals to stay up-to-date with the latest trends and developments.

Gary Brown,

Head of Commercial Development, Creditinfo Group.

www.creditinfo.com