An excellent Account Information Service is based on the accuracy of the categorization of transactions

Access to customer bank transaction data provides a basis for more intelligent business decisions

Creditinfo appoints Satrajit Saha as new Global CEO

Former CEO of TransUnion Europe – Satrajit Saha – brings his expertise to Creditinfo, planning to drive growth across its credit bureaus globally.

London – 29^th November 2023: Creditinfo, a global service provider for credit information and risk management solutions, has today announced the appointment of Satrajit Saha as its Global Chief Executive Officer (CEO). With over 20 years of experience in banking and credit bureau, Satrajit will drive the growth of Creditinfo and the maturity of its credit bureaus globally. He joins the company from TransUnion Europe, where he held the position of CEO for the last five years.

In his role, Satrajit will lead Creditinfo in advancing its strategic initiatives, with a particular focus on promoting financial inclusion worldwide. Drawing on his rich background in the credit information industry, spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe, he will lead the next phase of Creditinfo’s growth on a global level as it strives to become a truly global bureau and the leader for facilitating access to finance in both developed and emerging markets.

As an experienced strategic leader, Satrajit has an impressive reputation in the financial services space. At TransUnion Europe, he led the board of all TransUnion’s European owned entities. Before joining TransUnion Europe, he was Chief Business Officer at TransUnion India, where he was responsible for crafting and executing TransUnion’s CIBIL’s market strategy. He was also Cards Head, Africa Region, at Barclays Bank.

Satrajit Saha, newly appointed Global CEO at Creditinfo said: “I am honored to take on the role of Global CEO at Creditinfo, a company that is at the forefront of promoting financial inclusion. Together with the talented team at Creditinfo, we will continue to leverage innovative data sets and solutions to bridge information gaps and create opportunities to facilitate access to finance for individuals and businesses globally.”

Monty Ismail, Director at Levine Leichtman Capital Partners and Creditinfo Group Board member said: “We are delighted to welcome Satrajit “Satty” Saha as our new Global Chief Executive Officer. He is an accomplished executive with successful leadership experience relevant to our business, including his time as CEO of TransUnion UK. Today marks the beginning of a new chapter for Creditinfo, and we are excited to see Satty, with extensive knowledge of our key markets, take over as CEO. We are looking forward to working with Satty in continuing to expand our global footprint and unlock access to finance for millions of consumers and businesses worldwide. On behalf of the Board of Directors, I would like to thank Paul Randall for his important contribution as CEO. He has been key to our success, and we are all grateful for his leadership and dedication.”

He will begin his new role as Creditinfo CEO on 1^st January 2024 and will report directly to the Creditinfo Group Board.

-END-

About Creditinfo

Established in 1997 and headquartered in London, UK, Creditinfo is a provider of credit information and risk management solutions worldwide. As one of the fastest-growing companies in its field, Creditinfo facilitates access to finance, through intelligent information, software and decision analytics solutions.

With more than 30 credit bureaus running today, Creditinfo has the most considerable global presence in this field of credit risk management, with a significantly greater footprint than competitors. For decades it has provided business information, risk management and credit bureau solutions to some of the largest, lenders, governments and central banks globally to increase financial inclusion and generate economic growth by allowing credit access for SMEs and individuals.

For more information, please visit www.creditinfo.com 

A Master’s Thesis that highlighted the importance of timely submission of the Annual Report

In May 2023, Creditinfo Eesti announced a prize fund to recognize students who have addressed research questions in the fields of money laundering and sanctions in their research. In cooperation with the COBALT law firm and the representatives of the State Money Laundering Bureau, the evaluation committee chose Victoria Helenurme, a master’s student from the University of Tartu, as the winner for her master’s thesis on the topic “Prediction of deletion from the business register due to non-submission of the annual financial report using the example of Estonian companies”.

Victoria Helenurm is from Tallinn and graduated cum laude from the University of Tartu, majoring in Marketing & Financial Management. Today, she works as a financial controller in a company offering energy-saving indoor climate and renewable energy solutions and sees her future in business.

We had an interview with her on the journey of her thesis topic:

 The topic of your thesis was “Prediction of deletion from the business register due to non-submission of the annual financial report using the example of Estonian companies” – how did you arrive at this topic?

At the beginning of the summer of 2022, discussions began with people who eventually became my thesis supervisors. My main desire was to write a paper on a current topic in society. This year, the Estonian state penalties for not submitting the annual report became harsher, and in cooperation with my supervisors, we saw that there is a public interest in this area of research and also sufficient data for research.

 Why was this topic worth researching?

 If, as a person, we take a loan, for example, we are understanding the obligations that come with taking a loan. For me, founding a company or being on its board is a somewhat similar responsibility – as a manager, we have assumed the responsibility, among other things, to report on the progress of our company’s business to the public.

Unfortunately, while we are mostly exemplary in servicing loans, tens of thousands of Estonian companies fail to submit their annual reports on time.

 I cannot say whether this difference is due to, among other things, the fact that the penalties for not submitting the annual report have been relatively lenient. But it is certainly worthwhile for us to become more aware that such behavior is problematic.

After all the state of our countries businesses is based largely according to the data of the Business Register. If we have thousands of active companies that do not fulfill their reporting obligations, the financial forecasts, risk analyses, business decisions, etc. of the state, lenders and other parties will suffer in its quality.

The submission deadline (6 months after the end of the financial year) is a very lenient deadline. The business landscape is more and more unpredictable, so the knowledge of the previous year’s business results that arrives half a year later is already outdated. As is typical of our e-government, we would expect that at least certain types of companies could be assigned a much earlier submission obligation to help update our economic data.

 What facts became clearer as part of the research?

In my research, I tried to find an answer to the question of whether the deregistration of a company can be predicted purely by looking at how the company’s management has cared about the obligation to submit an annual report in its previous business life.

The Estonian financial world is very much a believer in financial ratios when assessing the business health of a company. I tried to see if it is possible to convincingly assess the business risk of deleting the company by completely setting aside the financial statement.

The studied dataset also proved this – a significantly more accurate forecasting method than financial ratios (prediction accuracy approx. 63%) was the observation of the past behavior of board members (prediction accuracy almost 82%). It can be said that if there is a member of the board of the company who has either delayed or failed to submit the financial year report in previous companies, it is a very clear business risk, which indicates the risk of deletion of the company in question.

 How could this research topic be continued?

Although I myself rather do not plan to continue my studies in a doctoral program, I definitely see possibilities for expanding this research topic. The obtained research results could certainly be compared with our neighboring countries – to assess whether in Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, etc. there are similar relationships between corporate delisting and board members’ past due diligence.

Another immediate opportunity for investigation is provided by the amendments to the law that entered into force this year, which toughened the penalties for failure to submit an annual report, among other things. Repeating this research in 5+ years would give an idea of whether business behavior has improved in terms of reporting obligations.

We were very pleased with Victoria’s research, as her research clearly connected with the general theme of our competition – the data of the Business Register and national registers in general are the main factors when applying the KYC principle. Financial data from the company that is not submitted on time or is completely missing, is a clear danger signal when investigating the background of your business partner.

When it comes to risk management – both when creating a customer relationship and during the existence of a customer relationship, up-to-date data from the business register is very necessary. Does the company actually operate; whether the data there (especially the field of activity and financial data) are correct (especially when it comes to the application of enhanced due diligence measures). The given data helps to understand the customer’s activity profile.

If the client does not submit annual reports, it is clear that it may be a riskier client, and this should be taken into account when establishing or monitoring a business relationship in order to mitigate the risk.

Urmas Pai –  KYC&Fraud Global Product Manager, Head of the evaluation committee

Creditinfo Estonia

www.creditinfo.ee

Creditinfo’s Account Information Service Product

In the spring of 2021, the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority authorized Creditinfo Estonia to offer Account Information Service in the Estonian market. In the autumn of 2021, the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority also granted the authorization to provide Account Information Service to the Latvian and Lithuanian markets. This act added to our product portfolio a new, exciting product that benefits our customers in the short and long run. As of today, we have had the Account Information Service in our cross-Baltic product portfolio for two years.

About the Account Information Service

The opportunity to provide Account Information Service emerged when the European Union (EU) Parliament and the EU Council adopted a new directive regulating payment services in the EU internal market on November 25, 2015 (PSD2), which emphasized the expansion of open banking in Europe.

Open Banking refers to provide third-party financial service providers open access to transactional data of bank and financial institution customers, using secure data transmission channels and customer consent.

The Account Information Service is a part of the Open Banking initiative, defined as an online service where the service user (customer) is identified and authenticated via strong identification and authentification means. The service itself means transmitting customer’s bank account data through a secure channel to third party from whom the customer wishes to apply a credit product.

How does Creditinfo provide the Account Information Service?

Using Creditinfo Estonia’s solution, both individuals, which is regulated by the aforementioned payment service directive, and companies can transmit their account information to third parties.

Beside financial sector the possibilities of the Account Information Service can be successfully used in application processes in various sectors. Previously mentioned customer consent is obviously obligatory.

Different sectors that can benefit from account information:

• Public sector companies that provide subsidies to individuals and businesses, where the information in the account details creates significant value when determining subsidies;
• Insurance sector companies, which can use behavioral information from the bank account for determining insurance premiums or simplifying the insurance incident evidence burden;
• Other sectors where value from account information help to create better personalized offers for their products and services.

The strength of our Account Information Service is categorization.

The greatest value of the Account Information Service provided by Creditinfo Estonia comes from categorizing account transactions, which our clients (data recipients) can conveniently use in their business decisions.

Categorization is a solution that can and should be continuously improved over time. Precise and detailed categorization is a top priority for Creditinfo Estonia’s Account Information Service.

The data from the Account Information Service serves also as an input for our Account Information Service Report. The report helps to make more informed business decisions both internally and towards our client’s customers. The report highlights all the key ratios, indicators, “green and red flags” and much more that can be extracted from account information.

The report is designed in a way that can be customized to meet the client’s needs, which make it a tool for everyday business decisions.

More information about the service: https://creditinfo.ee/en/avoid-debts/psd2/

How are sanctions created? Overview on the example of the European Union 

Even if it turns out later in the proceedings that you have behaved correctly, it is in no way reasonable to attract such negative media coverage; as well as experiencing the stress and resource consumption inevitably associated with such procedures. Therefore, it is always wise to prevent problems and look for solutions to mitigate such risks as early as possible, which AS Creditinfo Eesti can always help you with.

However, how are restrictive measures established, who is responsible for the fact that the EU can put someone on its lists at all, and is it inevitable to be on the sanctions lists or is it possible to get out of there somehow? Let’s take a closer look at this process here.

Initiation of sanctions in the European Union

The European Union is an association of independent countries operating on the basis of its founding treaty(s). One of the important principles is that the European Union has a common foreign and security policy, one of the important parts of which is, among other things, the imposition of sanctions in situations where it is desired :

• protect EU values, fundamental interests and security
• keep the peace
• consolidate and support democracy, the rule of law, human rights and the principles of international law
• prevent conflicts and strengthen international security

We have already covered the nature of sanctions and their relevance in relation to the situation in Ukraine in more detail on the Creditinfo channels beforehand, so we would currently only look at the process of how the idea of ​​sanctioning at the EU level results in a mandatory legal act for all persons operating on the territory of the Community.

The creation of legislation necessary for the implementation of sanctions can be viewed at the EU level in three different aspects :

• Legislation to take over UN sanctions is being created
• Legislation is being created to implement UN sanctions in an expanded form
• Legislation to establish autonomous EU sanctions regimes.

The European Foreign Service (institutionally part of the European Union Commission) is responsible for the implementation of EU sanctions policy , whose responsibility is to prepare drafts for establishing or changing sanctions regimes.

Of course, this is done in close cooperation with the member states, for example it is very important to get input regarding the identifying data of sanctioned persons, which information is often available to national specialists, and including it in the legislation establishing the sanction (or its annex) will help to significantly reduce the number of false positive responses arising from the implementation of the legislation in the future.

Since all member states must give their consent to the imposed sanctions, the draft sanctions move to the institution with the member states’ representation, i.e. the Council of the EU. The next instance is therefore the corresponding working group of the Council of the European Union (RELEX) , where the specialists of the member states cooperate to reach an agreement on the text of the legislation.

If agreement is not reached, the agreement will continue in the working group formed by the permanent representatives of the member states at the EU (COREPER) , from there the draft will go to the General Assembly of the Council of the EU (forum of heads of government), where it will be adopted and the text of the legislation will be agreed upon. For mandatory compliance, the legislation will be in the EU gazette after its publication.

Ending sanctions 

Existing EU autonomous sanctions legislation is reviewed regularly, but no less often than once every 12 months.

Since the EU follows the principles of the rule of law (Rule of Law), it is of course also possible for persons under sanctions to get rid of the status of a sanctioned person through legal processes.

There are two main options for this – to publish a motivated statement of wish to this effect directly to the Council of the EU, which will then process the corresponding application and make a decision regarding whether to leave the sanctions list or to remove it from it, or another, more widely used option, to turn to the General Court of the European Union ( General Court of the European Union).

For example, at this point it is perhaps even appropriate to bring up the most talked about decision of recent times about the victory achieved by Violetta Prigozhin, the mother of the late Yevgeni Prigozhin, regarding her delisting .

AS Creditinfo Eesti has continued to take on the concern of providing the necessary support to market participants in the implementation of international sanctions, and we are ready to help with various issues, both with advice and force. We believe that in this way, in cooperation with our customers, we can best contribute to the achievement of the common foreign and security policy goals of the EU.

Visit: creditinfo.ee

One in five construction companies on the brink of bankruptcy in Lithuania

As shown in a recent analysis of the construction sector conducted by Creditinfo Lietuva, almost a fifth (18%) of construction companies¹ are currently on the brink of bankruptcy, while almost a third (31%) are at risk of defaulting on their payments. According to publicly available data², construction companies, as a whole, exhibit shorter operating histories and offer lower wages compared to other sectors. Financial experts are therefore advising caution when engaging with construction firms.

There are currently 19,167 construction companies in Lithuania, employing almost 108,000 people. The numbers of construction companies and their employees have shown consistent growth since 2020. In 2020, there were 16,144 construction companies with an employee count of nearly 102,000. By 2021, the numbers had risen to 17,171 companies and over 102,000 employees, and at the beginning of 2022, the sector boasted 18,512 companies, employing in excess of 106,000 people.

The average age of a construction company CEO is  about 46 years, with a striking 87.5% of these leaders being male. Compared to other sectors, construction companies have a comparatively shorter average lifespan in the market, standing at 10 years, in contrast to the national average of over 13 years.

Despite witnessing among the fastest growth in the current year, salaries for construction workers still lag behind the Lithuanian average. According to data from Sodra, construction worker wages surged by 22% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching EUR 1,300 before tax (EUR 880 net), while the average earnings of full-time workers across Lithuania rose by 12.3% year-on-year, amounting to EUR 1,980 before tax.

The risk of bankruptcy among construction companies is twice as high as the national average

Currently, 18% of construction firms fall into the high and highest bankruptcy risk categories, compared to 20% at the beginning of this year and 19% at the beginning of 2022. The high and highest risk classes of late payment now account for 31% of construction companies, up from 37% at the beginning of 2023 and 34% at the beginning of last year.

For all companies in Lithuania, excluding the construction sector, 9% of all companies in the country were in the high and highest bankruptcy risk classes at the beginning of 2023, compared to 12% at the beginning of 2022. At the beginning of this year, 17% of all Lithuanian companies belonged to the high and highest risk classes of late payment, with 21% at the beginning of 2022.

“Although the construction sector has experienced a period of growth in recent years, it is particularly sensitive to borrowing conditions, fluctuations in demand and geopolitical changes. During the pandemic, builders experienced a boom in demand – with many people deciding to improve their homes – low energy prices and relatively cheap borrowing. Subsequently, the construction sector encountered a number of challenges stemming from disrupted supply chains and the need to withdraw from cooperation with sanctioned countries,” explains Ekaterina Rojaka, Head of Business Strategy and Development at Creditinfo Lithuania. “In recent months, with the European Central Bank raising its base interest rates, borrowing has become a more costly affair, reducing people’s ability to borrow, and homes built with credit have been slower to sell.”

This year, bankruptcy proceedings were initiated for 136 construction companies

Since 2007, a total of 44,256 construction companies have been declared bankrupt in Lithuania. The highest number of bankruptcies occurred in 2009 (445), 2016 (351) and 2017 (367). Only in 2007 was the number of bankruptcies below 100, with a total of 67. In Lithuania, 163 construction companies faced insolvency in 2020, 131 in 2021 and 237 in 2022. In the first 8 months of this year alone, 136 construction companies in Lithuania have declared bankruptcy.

As of the beginning of September this year, there were 11,512 construction company debts on record, collectively burdened with nearly EUR 90 million in debts, with 962 new debts registered in the first 8 months of the year, according to the credit bureau systems. The average size of a single debt is EUR 7,800.

“When entering into contracts with construction companies, it is advisable to pay more attention to their risk assessment and to clearly negotiate payment terms,” Rojaka commented.

According to data provided to the Centre of Registers, the top 10 construction companies with the highest revenues last year are: YIT Lietuva (EUR 140.6 million), AB Kauno Tiltai (EUR 134.4 million), Conres LT (EUR 100.1 million), Autokausta (EUR 83.2 million), Tetas (EUR 79 million), Staticus (EUR 75.9 million), Merko Statyba (EUR 70.4 million), Žilinskis ir Co (EUR 68.7 million) and INGUS (EUR 63.9 million).

Almost one-fifth (19%) of companies in this sector have not yet submitted their financial statements for 2022.

According to Rojaka, state orders and building modernisation programmes will support the construction sector’s activity in the near future, as demand for real estate slows down. However, falling demand has only a limited impact on the final prices of construction services, as cheaper building materials do not compensate for the sector’s rapidly rising wages, which account for more than a quarter of total construction costs. As a result, construction continues to become more expensive, with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in construction costs in July, with the fastest increase in building repair costs, which rose by 9.2%.

More information:
Jekaterina Rojaka, Head of Business Strategy and Development at Creditinfo Lithuania (jekaterina.rojaka@creditinfo.com)

Or visit: lt.creditinfo.com/en

Notes:

¹ In this report, construction companies are defined as companies that have publicly declared to the State Data Agency (SDA) the activity codes of Section F (41-43) of NACE2 as the company’s main activity.

² The data in this press release is based on information publicly provided by the State Enterprise Centre of Registers, SODRA, the State Data Agency (VDA), and other sources.

Creditinfo: “The BIC reform will make it possible to take a big step towards financial inclusion.”

Reform of BICs, impact of inflation on solvency, feedback from the Checkinfo service – an overview with Sidimohamed Abouchikhi, Regional Director for Francophone Africa of Creditinfo Group, and Director of the Board of Directors of Checkinfo.

Finance News Hebdo: In this inflationary context, what assessment do you make of individuals’ and businesses’ insolvency risks?

Article translated in English as first seen on Finance News Hebdo 

For more inofmormation visit: www.checkinfo.ma

Creditinfo designated “High Overall Maturity Score” ESG rating by Anthesis

Transport business in the Baltics is in recession, with only Lithuania experiencing a slightly brighter picture

Coface records recovery in air transport, but pre-pandemic figures not yet reached.

The transport sector is the one with the highest improvement in risk scores in the latest Coface Quarterly Survey, although the global macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain. Coface experts note that air transport forecasts and new aircraft orders are providing greater optimism. Transport business is rated higher in Western Europe, the Middle East and Japan, while in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), including the Baltic states, the transport sector continues to be rated the highest risk. The transport sector in Estonia and Latvia is facing more challenges this year, while in Lithuania the situation has started to improve since Q2, with a decrease in bankruptcies and an increase in the forecasts for businesses.

According to Coface experts, the higher scores in the transport sector are mainly due to the recovery of the Chinese economy and global tourism, as well as to public policy decisions, such as the priority given to rail traffic in Germany. However, overall risks to the transport sector remain very high due to high energy costs and demand still below pre-pandemic levels.

Head of Coface Baltics, Mindaugas Sventickas, points out that it is air transport that has been the activity most affected in the global transport sector, and that it is now recovering rapidly. This is due to the gradual economic recovery from the second half of 2021 onwards, significantly influenced by the opening up of Japan (end of 2022) and China (early 2023), which has facilitated travel conditions for international tourists.

The Coface survey shows that while the number of commercial flights has increased and is now even above pre-pandemic levels, seat occupancy rates remain lower. For example, in the Asia-Pacific region, total passenger traffic in April 2023 increased by 171% compared to April last year, thanks in particular to China. Despite the strong growth, demand in this region remains lower than in 2019 (-18% in April 2023 compared to April 2019).

New orders for Airbus and Boeing aircraft are rising: aiming to fly greener and save fuel

In Western Europe and the United States, Airbus and Boeing have also reported an increase in aircraft orders, reaching 774 Boeing and 820 Airbus aircraft in 2022. At the 2022 Paris Air Show, a number of new orders were announced, with Air IndiGo ordering 500 A320 aircraft and Air India ordering 250 Airbus and 220 Boeing aircraft. According to the experts at Coface, this acceleration in the aerospace industry has prompted the decision to improve the risk assessment of the transport sector in some countries, e.g. France. Many of the production processes of Airbus are carried out in France, with production sites spread over Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. This has contributed to a better assessment of the transport sector across Western Europe.

“It is also worth noting that the main players in the air transport industry are pursuing a strategy that takes environmental concerns into account. On the one hand, this motivates manufacturers to innovate in order to develop ‘cleaner’ aircraft. On the other hand, it encourages airlines to upgrade their fleets to use less energy,” comments Sventickas.

Cargo transport by sea decreases by almost one third

The situation is different in maritime transport, where activity is slowing down slightly after two exceptional years. Declining sea freight rates, high energy costs and stagflation are adversely affecting the financial performance of sea carriers. The revenues of Maersk and CMA CGM in Q1 2023 decreased by 26% and 30% respectively compared to Q1 last year, although they remain significantly higher than in Q1 2019.

This drop in revenue is primarily due to price effects (a fall in freight rates), while the drop in volumes is smaller, with a 3% annual decrease in the container index for January–April 2023. This drop in volumes is partly passed on to rail and motor transport, which is primarily used for the transport of cargo from ports.

Passenger transport in the Baltic States has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels

When analysing air passenger flows in the Baltic states for the period 2019–2023, the highest passenger traffic is traditionally observed in Q3 of each year. After the pandemic, air passenger traffic in all of the Baltic states, although slowly increasing, has not yet reached the levels recorded in 2019. For example, in Q3 2019, the number of air passengers in Estonia reached 954,000, in Latvia 2,299,000 and in Lithuania 1,821,000. In the same period last year (Q3 2022), the figures were 841,000 (88%), 1,711,000 (71%) and 1,677,000 (92%) respectively. According to Eurostat and Coface, the total number of passengers carried by air in the Baltic states in 2022 was 13,434, compared to 6,094 in 2021, 4,657 in 2020 and 17,548 in 2019.

The situation in rail passenger transport is slightly better. For example, in Q3 2019, the number of passengers in Estonia was 2,105,000, in Latvia 5,256,000 and in Lithuania 1,287,000. In the same period last year, the figures were 1,837,000 (87%), 4,835,000 (92%) and 1,292,000 (100%) respectively. The total number of passengers carried by rail in the Baltic states in 2022 was 27,289, compared to 21,069 in 2021, 22,085 in 2020 and 31,986 in 2019. In Q1 of this year, the figure for the Baltic countries was 6,485.

Sventickas notes that the Lithuanian transport sector is distinguished from other Baltic countries by more optimistic forecasts for 2023: “Although the situation in the Lithuanian transport sector deteriorated in the first quarter of this year, we have seen some positive trends since the second quarter of this year: the transport of freight by sea and water has stabilised and the transport of freight by land has returned to almost pre-pandemic levels. Since February this year, the forecasts of transport companies in Lithuania have become more stable, while previously they had been declining for several months.”

Creditinfo: Optimism of Lithuanian transport companies is good news for almost 200,000 employees in the sector

According to 2022 data, Lithuania’s transport and storage sector generated 11.2% of the country’s GDP, which is 2.6 times more than the average for other EU countries. In total, there are currently 8,568 transport and logistics companies in Lithuania, employing 171,300 people, i.e. a quarter more than in 2019.

Jekaterina Rojaka, Head of Business Development and Strategy at Creditinfo Lietuva, points out that the majority (72%) of companies in the transport sector in Lithuania are involved in road freight transport. According to the data of July this year, even 6,195 out of 8,568 transport companies registered in Lithuania indicate that their main activity is transportation of goods by land. Transport accounts for over 55% of Lithuania’s total exports of services. The number of air and water transport companies is 21 and 37 respectively; 2,233 companies in the sector provide storage and transport-related activities and 82 companies provide postal and courier services.

“During the pandemic, the risk exposure of Lithuanian transport companies increased due to travel restrictions, changes in the demand for goods, and then the rise in fuel prices,” says Rojaka. “In 2022, there was a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies in the transport sector, which started to stabilise this year. In the first half of this year, bankruptcies in the transport sector accounted for only 6% of all company bankruptcies, compared to 24% in the trade sector and 20% in the construction sector. In total, 35 transport service companies have gone bankrupt since the beginning of the year, compared to 50 companies in the sector that went into bankruptcy in the same period last year.”

Rojaka says that although the number of bankruptcies of transport companies has decreased, the number of new companies has slowed down slightly: last year, despite bankruptcies, new companies were actively registering, while in the first four months of this year that number has contracted by 2%. According to a representative of the credit bureau, transport companies have started to borrow more, and the average debt of a company has increased by approximately 35%. There is also a lower number of companies with a low risk of bankruptcy, that is 58.1%, compared to the overall assessment of Lithuanian business of 69.5%. The share of companies in the transport sector experiencing financial difficulties in 2022 is lower than the national average, and amounts to 13.2% (compared to 17.6% for the economy as a whole).

“With the slowdown in domestic consumption in the EU, transport service providers continue to face challenges this year, with competition in the sector increasing due to limited demand, and service fees shrinking. Waterborne transport has seen a particularly sharp fall: The Baltic Dry index contracted by 57% over the year, and this year similar trends have been observed in road transport,” explains Rojaka. “The best short-term prospects for the sector at the moment are for airlines, which are steadily both increasing the number of flights and trying to rebuild the revenues lost in the pandemic. With inflation gradually slowing and demand stabilising, the situation for land and water transport companies should improve next year.”

Creditinfo Lithuania.

Visit: www.lt.creditinfo.com

www.creditinfo.com