A Master’s Thesis that highlighted the importance of timely submission of the Annual Report
In May 2023, Creditinfo Eesti announced a prize fund to recognize students who have addressed research questions in the fields of money laundering and sanctions in their research. In cooperation with the COBALT law firm and the representatives of the State Money Laundering Bureau, the evaluation committee chose Victoria Helenurme, a master’s student from the University of Tartu, as the winner for her master’s thesis on the topic “Prediction of deletion from the business register due to non-submission of the annual financial report using the example of Estonian companies”.
Victoria Helenurm is from Tallinn and graduated cum laude from the University of Tartu, majoring in Marketing & Financial Management. Today, she works as a financial controller in a company offering energy-saving indoor climate and renewable energy solutions and sees her future in business.
We had an interview with her on the journey of her thesis topic:
The topic of your thesis was “Prediction of deletion from the business register due to non-submission of the annual financial report using the example of Estonian companies” – how did you arrive at this topic?
At the beginning of the summer of 2022, discussions began with people who eventually became my thesis supervisors. My main desire was to write a paper on a current topic in society. This year, the Estonian state penalties for not submitting the annual report became harsher, and in cooperation with my supervisors, we saw that there is a public interest in this area of research and also sufficient data for research.
Why was this topic worth researching?
If, as a person, we take a loan, for example, we are understanding the obligations that come with taking a loan. For me, founding a company or being on its board is a somewhat similar responsibility – as a manager, we have assumed the responsibility, among other things, to report on the progress of our company’s business to the public.
Unfortunately, while we are mostly exemplary in servicing loans, tens of thousands of Estonian companies fail to submit their annual reports on time.
I cannot say whether this difference is due to, among other things, the fact that the penalties for not submitting the annual report have been relatively lenient. But it is certainly worthwhile for us to become more aware that such behavior is problematic.
After all the state of our countries businesses is based largely according to the data of the Business Register. If we have thousands of active companies that do not fulfill their reporting obligations, the financial forecasts, risk analyses, business decisions, etc. of the state, lenders and other parties will suffer in its quality.
The submission deadline (6 months after the end of the financial year) is a very lenient deadline. The business landscape is more and more unpredictable, so the knowledge of the previous year’s business results that arrives half a year later is already outdated. As is typical of our e-government, we would expect that at least certain types of companies could be assigned a much earlier submission obligation to help update our economic data.
What facts became clearer as part of the research?
In my research, I tried to find an answer to the question of whether the deregistration of a company can be predicted purely by looking at how the company’s management has cared about the obligation to submit an annual report in its previous business life.
The Estonian financial world is very much a believer in financial ratios when assessing the business health of a company. I tried to see if it is possible to convincingly assess the business risk of deleting the company by completely setting aside the financial statement.
The studied dataset also proved this – a significantly more accurate forecasting method than financial ratios (prediction accuracy approx. 63%) was the observation of the past behavior of board members (prediction accuracy almost 82%). It can be said that if there is a member of the board of the company who has either delayed or failed to submit the financial year report in previous companies, it is a very clear business risk, which indicates the risk of deletion of the company in question.
How could this research topic be continued?
Although I myself rather do not plan to continue my studies in a doctoral program, I definitely see possibilities for expanding this research topic. The obtained research results could certainly be compared with our neighboring countries – to assess whether in Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, etc. there are similar relationships between corporate delisting and board members’ past due diligence.
Another immediate opportunity for investigation is provided by the amendments to the law that entered into force this year, which toughened the penalties for failure to submit an annual report, among other things. Repeating this research in 5+ years would give an idea of whether business behavior has improved in terms of reporting obligations.
We were very pleased with Victoria’s research, as her research clearly connected with the general theme of our competition – the data of the Business Register and national registers in general are the main factors when applying the KYC principle. Financial data from the company that is not submitted on time or is completely missing, is a clear danger signal when investigating the background of your business partner.
When it comes to risk management – both when creating a customer relationship and during the existence of a customer relationship, up-to-date data from the business register is very necessary. Does the company actually operate; whether the data there (especially the field of activity and financial data) are correct (especially when it comes to the application of enhanced due diligence measures). The given data helps to understand the customer’s activity profile.
If the client does not submit annual reports, it is clear that it may be a riskier client, and this should be taken into account when establishing or monitoring a business relationship in order to mitigate the risk.
Urmas Pai – KYC&Fraud Global Product Manager, Head of the evaluation committee
Creditinfo Estonia
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Way too often we meet with Financial Institutions who manage their customer portfolios mainly manually and through judgmental decisions.
This is true of companies spanning the array from Tier 1 Banks to small MFIs. And it encompasses essential business management points, such as Leads generation, Lending approval, Credit Limit assignment, Pricing, Collections and Fraud Prevention.
We have encountered this needless issue in every geographical region.
Conversely, the Industry Best Practices show that taking such decisions in automated environment and based on Predictive Modeling leads to more efficiency, effectiveness and customer satisfaction. Ultimately, this leads to improved KPIs and helps the company to achieve its corporate goals.
Before we analyze the typical obstacles to the adoption of Automated Decisioning, let us briefly examine its main financial advantages and soft benefits. Continue reading »
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Working through a case study
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The training covered many areas including the use and understanding of credit bureau data, how credit scoring works and scorecard development. Most sessions were interactive to provide active involvement and help learning. Continue reading »
