An excellent Account Information Service is based on the accuracy of the categorization of transactions

A Master’s Thesis that highlighted the importance of timely submission of the Annual Report

In May 2023, Creditinfo Eesti announced a prize fund to recognize students who have addressed research questions in the fields of money laundering and sanctions in their research. In cooperation with the COBALT law firm and the representatives of the State Money Laundering Bureau, the evaluation committee chose Victoria Helenurme, a master’s student from the University of Tartu, as the winner for her master’s thesis on the topic “Prediction of deletion from the business register due to non-submission of the annual financial report using the example of Estonian companies”.

Victoria Helenurm is from Tallinn and graduated cum laude from the University of Tartu, majoring in Marketing & Financial Management. Today, she works as a financial controller in a company offering energy-saving indoor climate and renewable energy solutions and sees her future in business.

We had an interview with her on the journey of her thesis topic:

 The topic of your thesis was “Prediction of deletion from the business register due to non-submission of the annual financial report using the example of Estonian companies” – how did you arrive at this topic?

At the beginning of the summer of 2022, discussions began with people who eventually became my thesis supervisors. My main desire was to write a paper on a current topic in society. This year, the Estonian state penalties for not submitting the annual report became harsher, and in cooperation with my supervisors, we saw that there is a public interest in this area of research and also sufficient data for research.

 Why was this topic worth researching?

 If, as a person, we take a loan, for example, we are understanding the obligations that come with taking a loan. For me, founding a company or being on its board is a somewhat similar responsibility – as a manager, we have assumed the responsibility, among other things, to report on the progress of our company’s business to the public.

Unfortunately, while we are mostly exemplary in servicing loans, tens of thousands of Estonian companies fail to submit their annual reports on time.

 I cannot say whether this difference is due to, among other things, the fact that the penalties for not submitting the annual report have been relatively lenient. But it is certainly worthwhile for us to become more aware that such behavior is problematic.

After all the state of our countries businesses is based largely according to the data of the Business Register. If we have thousands of active companies that do not fulfill their reporting obligations, the financial forecasts, risk analyses, business decisions, etc. of the state, lenders and other parties will suffer in its quality.

The submission deadline (6 months after the end of the financial year) is a very lenient deadline. The business landscape is more and more unpredictable, so the knowledge of the previous year’s business results that arrives half a year later is already outdated. As is typical of our e-government, we would expect that at least certain types of companies could be assigned a much earlier submission obligation to help update our economic data.

 What facts became clearer as part of the research?

In my research, I tried to find an answer to the question of whether the deregistration of a company can be predicted purely by looking at how the company’s management has cared about the obligation to submit an annual report in its previous business life.

The Estonian financial world is very much a believer in financial ratios when assessing the business health of a company. I tried to see if it is possible to convincingly assess the business risk of deleting the company by completely setting aside the financial statement.

The studied dataset also proved this – a significantly more accurate forecasting method than financial ratios (prediction accuracy approx. 63%) was the observation of the past behavior of board members (prediction accuracy almost 82%). It can be said that if there is a member of the board of the company who has either delayed or failed to submit the financial year report in previous companies, it is a very clear business risk, which indicates the risk of deletion of the company in question.

 How could this research topic be continued?

Although I myself rather do not plan to continue my studies in a doctoral program, I definitely see possibilities for expanding this research topic. The obtained research results could certainly be compared with our neighboring countries – to assess whether in Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, etc. there are similar relationships between corporate delisting and board members’ past due diligence.

Another immediate opportunity for investigation is provided by the amendments to the law that entered into force this year, which toughened the penalties for failure to submit an annual report, among other things. Repeating this research in 5+ years would give an idea of whether business behavior has improved in terms of reporting obligations.

We were very pleased with Victoria’s research, as her research clearly connected with the general theme of our competition – the data of the Business Register and national registers in general are the main factors when applying the KYC principle. Financial data from the company that is not submitted on time or is completely missing, is a clear danger signal when investigating the background of your business partner.

When it comes to risk management – both when creating a customer relationship and during the existence of a customer relationship, up-to-date data from the business register is very necessary. Does the company actually operate; whether the data there (especially the field of activity and financial data) are correct (especially when it comes to the application of enhanced due diligence measures). The given data helps to understand the customer’s activity profile.

If the client does not submit annual reports, it is clear that it may be a riskier client, and this should be taken into account when establishing or monitoring a business relationship in order to mitigate the risk.

Urmas Pai –  KYC&Fraud Global Product Manager, Head of the evaluation committee

Creditinfo Estonia

www.creditinfo.ee

Creditinfo’s Account Information Service Product

In the spring of 2021, the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority authorized Creditinfo Estonia to offer Account Information Service in the Estonian market. In the autumn of 2021, the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority also granted the authorization to provide Account Information Service to the Latvian and Lithuanian markets. This act added to our product portfolio a new, exciting product that benefits our customers in the short and long run. As of today, we have had the Account Information Service in our cross-Baltic product portfolio for two years.

About the Account Information Service

The opportunity to provide Account Information Service emerged when the European Union (EU) Parliament and the EU Council adopted a new directive regulating payment services in the EU internal market on November 25, 2015 (PSD2), which emphasized the expansion of open banking in Europe.

Open Banking refers to provide third-party financial service providers open access to transactional data of bank and financial institution customers, using secure data transmission channels and customer consent.

The Account Information Service is a part of the Open Banking initiative, defined as an online service where the service user (customer) is identified and authenticated via strong identification and authentification means. The service itself means transmitting customer’s bank account data through a secure channel to third party from whom the customer wishes to apply a credit product.

How does Creditinfo provide the Account Information Service?

Using Creditinfo Estonia’s solution, both individuals, which is regulated by the aforementioned payment service directive, and companies can transmit their account information to third parties.

Beside financial sector the possibilities of the Account Information Service can be successfully used in application processes in various sectors. Previously mentioned customer consent is obviously obligatory.

Different sectors that can benefit from account information:

• Public sector companies that provide subsidies to individuals and businesses, where the information in the account details creates significant value when determining subsidies;
• Insurance sector companies, which can use behavioral information from the bank account for determining insurance premiums or simplifying the insurance incident evidence burden;
• Other sectors where value from account information help to create better personalized offers for their products and services.

The strength of our Account Information Service is categorization.

The greatest value of the Account Information Service provided by Creditinfo Estonia comes from categorizing account transactions, which our clients (data recipients) can conveniently use in their business decisions.

Categorization is a solution that can and should be continuously improved over time. Precise and detailed categorization is a top priority for Creditinfo Estonia’s Account Information Service.

The data from the Account Information Service serves also as an input for our Account Information Service Report. The report helps to make more informed business decisions both internally and towards our client’s customers. The report highlights all the key ratios, indicators, “green and red flags” and much more that can be extracted from account information.

The report is designed in a way that can be customized to meet the client’s needs, which make it a tool for everyday business decisions.

More information about the service: https://creditinfo.ee/en/avoid-debts/psd2/

Digital Transformation in Credit Risk Management: What You Need to Know

The rise of digital technologies is transforming the financial industry, and credit risk management is no exception. With the increasing use of digital channels for financial transactions, there is a growing need for credit risk management strategies that can effectively manage risks in these channels. In this blog post, we will explore the concept of digital transformation in credit risk management and discuss some of the key trends and best practices in this area.

What is Digital Transformation in Credit Risk Management?

Digital transformation in credit risk management involves the use of digital technologies to manage credit risk more effectively. This includes the use of advanced analytics and machine learning to analyze large amounts of data in real-time, as well as the development of digital platforms that enable faster and more efficient credit risk management processes.

One of the key benefits of digital transformation in credit risk management is the ability to analyze data more effectively. By using advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms, financial institutions can analyze large amounts of data in real-time, identifying trends and patterns that may be indicative of credit risk. This can help financial institutions make more informed lending decisions, reducing the risk of default on loans and other credit products.

Another benefit of digital transformation in credit risk management is the development of digital platforms that enable faster and more efficient credit risk management processes. For example, some financial institutions are developing digital platforms that enable borrowers to apply for loans online, with the platform automatically analyzing the borrower’s credit risk and providing a decision in real-time. This can significantly reduce the time and cost associated with traditional lending processes, making it easier for borrowers to access credit.

Key Trends and Best Practices in Digital Transformation in Credit Risk Management

There are several key trends and best practices in digital transformation in credit risk management that financial institutions should be aware of:

Use of advanced analytics and machine learning: Financial institutions should leverage advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms to analyze large amounts of data in real-time, identifying trends and patterns that may be indicative of credit risk.

Development of digital platforms: Financial institutions should develop digital platforms that enable faster and more efficient credit risk management processes. These platforms should be user-friendly and easy to access, making it easier for borrowers to apply for loans and access credit.

Integration with other digital platforms: Financial institutions should integrate their credit risk management platforms with other digital platforms, such as mobile banking apps and online marketplaces, to provide a seamless and integrated experience for borrowers.

Investment in cybersecurity: Financial institutions should invest in cybersecurity measures to protect against cyber threats and ensure the security of customer data.

Conclusion

Digital transformation is transforming the financial industry, and credit risk management is no exception. By leveraging digital technologies such as advanced analytics, machine learning, and digital platforms, financial institutions can manage credit risk more effectively, reducing the risk of default on loans and other credit products. As the financial landscape continues to evolve, it is likely that new digital technologies and best practices will emerge, requiring credit risk management professionals to stay up-to-date with the latest trends and developments.

Gary Brown,

Head of Commercial Development, Creditinfo Group.

www.creditinfo.com

Paving the way for a brighter future through SME lending  

Developing modern solutions and removing barriers, paves the way for a brighter future through SME lending

SMEs (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises) are known as one of the biggest business sectors in each economy, being important contributors to job creation and global economic development. They create more than 50% of employment worldwide.

SMEs have gained importance in developing economies. Although SMEs have some weaknesses, they are less affected by economic crises due to their flexibility and ability to keep up with changing conditions. SMEs are vital establishments to create an effective innovation ecosystemThis is shown by recent studies that SME’s can contribute to over 55% of GDP and over 50% of total employment.

SMEs can find it increasingly difficult to borrow money from traditional banks because of strict requirements. It is often seen that SMEs are riskier than large institutions as it is difficult for banks to evaluate them in the same way since they often do not have solid accounting systems. This difficulty in assessing their creditworthiness often impacts the bank’s ability to provide affordable credit. As a result, many SMEs are forced to look at alternative solutions such as expensive credit lines charging high interest rates or offering costly collateral. Neither of these options are sustainable for small businesses.

SMEs need fast decisions and a more agile, digital approach. This is where Creditinfo and local Fintechs are working in collaboration to support the sector. Together, we specialize in using technology to quickly assess each SME’s entire data footprint and then provide tailored financial solutions. Based on our experience in Africa, we can assess the credit risk an SME poses by using real-time data from multiple sources, including e-wallets, credit bureaus and credit scores. The traditional method, consisting of manual processes and hard copies, is now an outdated approach in the digital world.

Digital SME finance, using alternative data, offers an extraordinary opportunity for addressing some of the challenges. Every time SMEs and their customers use digital services, conduct banking transactions, make or accept digital payments, use their mobile phones, or manage their receivables and payables through a digital platform, they create alternative data. This real-time and verified data can be analyzed to determine both capacity and willingness to repay loans.

Specific SME assessment methodology can also be applied. For example, small companies tend to have a greater level of owner centricity. Therefore, blending business and personal data can enable the development of highly predictive blended scorecards that utilize the payment behaviour of business owners and managers and company credit data to produce a more comprehensive risk assessment.

Help is also needed from Central Banks to continue to support this sector. We are seeing reforms happening globally where Central Banks are implementing mandates for all banks to lend a set percentage of their credit portfolios to SMEs. Boosting the availability of finance for the SME sector, the reforms aim to ease the flow and reduce the high cost of credit to a sector that is considered an engine of growth for the future.

SME lending is rapidly growing, and by putting the customer needs first and using new solutions and data, we can begin to shift the status quo. Globally there is a shift toward digital lending solutions, which can support a level playing field for SMEs. By transforming this lending sector as a whole, we can make it more accessible for small businesses to grow and continue making a difference.

Joe Bowerbank – Business/Commercial Development, Creditinfo Group.

www.creditinfo.com

KYC: How compliance can improve business performance – post event summary

Know Your Customer (KYC) is not just a set of regulations to comply with. With the right data, processes, and technology, it can be a valuable tool to understand our customers better and thus be able to support them throughout their challenges, while at the same time shielding business owners from unnecessary risk. We wanted to delve a little deeper into this issue and so hosted a webinar with leading experts on the regulatory environment and financial crime to delve into the topic. Our panel of experts discussed what organizations need to do to de-risk their operations and how they can set themselves up for future success.

Our expert panel was made up of Graham Barrow, Director and Presenter of the Dark Money Files podcast, Viljar Kähari, Co-founder of PWC Legal Estonia and Gandolfo Iacono, CEO of LexisNexis Russia CIS & Eastern Europe.

Chaired by our Director of Global Markets, Brynja Baldursdóttir, the webinar drew in over 500 registrants and 300 attendees from 33 different countries, all eager to better understand the opportunities compliance technologies can bring to a business.

Brynja began the session by explaining that KYC is not just a box ticking exercise, it is a necessity for better business in 2021. The key thing to consider is that KYC is all about trust.

Dark Money

To begin, Graham contextualized the important role that KYC plays in protecting the financial system from ‘dark money’. Dark money, “which is any money that enters the financial system for which you cannot show for certain where it comes from”, has real victims that do not show up on paper. Dark money must come at a cost to somebody. Better KYC processes are not just protecting customers and businesses, it also protects taxpayers in corrupt countries and potential victims of money laundering all over the world.

Part of the issue with stopping or at least resisting the flow of dark money according to Viljar Kähari, is that “banks interpret KYC requirements very differently. It seems that client onboarding and monitoring processes are sometimes much more important than actually understanding a client’s business and monitoring transactions.” This alludes to what Graham believes the larger problem to be, that, “there really is a big difference between banks being compliant in terms of the anti-financial crime requirements, and stopping dirty money entering the system.”

Understand your customer

To shift from just being compliant with regulations to stopping financial crime with compliance we must progress from Knowing Your Customer to ‘Understanding Your Customer’ (UYC), a phrase Graham coined during the discussion. He commented that this is “because if people are intent on laundering money, they will provide beautiful documentation to get into the financial institution, but that documentation will need to be lies.” If we can go beyond knowing our customer to understanding them, then we can see through even the best lies. “Because if you force people and criminals to lie when they create the accounts documentation, you then have good documentation to monitor the downstream transactions. And that is the control. It is getting them to say in detail what they want you to hear and then monitor in detail what they actually do. It’s the difference between those two things, which is your control.”

Data, data, data

Our panelists agreed that the bridge between KYC and ‘UYC’ is data. Graham commented that “the ability to take KYC data, and feed it into your transaction monitoring system intelligently, is probably the single most important thing we can do. But we must sell one idea to all our customers. The idea that KYC is not an ordeal we have to put the customer through. It is the most important thing we can do to protect them.”

There are barriers that compliance teams need to break through to get to this next level of KYC. Gandolfo says, “the issue is that we see compliance or AML as a cost centre”. Compliance departments need to be seen as an asset hat needs serious data and software,” and many managers are not aware of this. Managers need to see the value that effective compliance brings in potential fines avoided. Viljar concurred, “compliance departments are overloaded. They do not have the resources they need; they do not have access to different databases.”

Perception

The perception of compliance needs to change for organizations to allocate the resources teams need to resist the flow of ‘dark money’. Viljar stated that “changing the mindset of compliance officers from an inspector to a business advisor is more important and necessary today. Because we cannot assume that all clients are criminals unless they can prove otherwise. It is the common understanding now because you need to provide a massive amount of information and documentation to show that you are  getting your money legally. And that is why I’m thinking that the compliance function must become more proactive at finding practical solutions rather than just saying ‘that this work cannot be done.’”

To make this organizational culture shift it will take time, but our panel agreed that a realistic alternative is to outsource KYC and AML, provided there is not a “homogenization of risk appetite”. Viljar noted that when a company does not have access to a public register, “there are several service providers who can easily help to solve this problem. Just the banks and other regulated financial institutions must trust service providers and user services.”

Change of mindset

Summarizing the event Brynja rounded up the discussion by pointing out that the most important takeaway from the webinar is that as an industry, we need to start changing our mindset from knowing our customer, to understanding our customer. We need to vastly improve international cooperation in terms of legislation and regulation, and we can refine processes around KYC in terms of increasing shared services, using data and technology in a smarter manner which ultimately should make sure that we as businesses make our processes reflect our appetite for risk. It is time to make the switch from simply knowing, to understanding our customers.

Learn more

This virtual event was a huge success from our perspective which gathered an incredibly engaged audience. Thank you so much for all your brilliant questions – our panel enjoyed the lively debate!

If you would like to re-watch the session, or if you were unable to attend, please use this link to learn about the benefits KYC compliance can bring to your business.

Creditinfo Group becomes sole owner of International Bureau of Credit Histories in Ukraine

Creditinfo is investing in IBCH to improve its credit information sharing system

 KYIV, UKRAINE, May 24, 2021 – Creditinfo Group, the leading global credit information and fintech services provider, today announces that it has become the sole owner of Ukraine’s International Bureau of Credit Histories (IBCH). Creditinfo aims to improve access to financial services for Ukrainians and support financial institutions with a full suite of best-in-class credit risk management tools.

Established in 2006, IBCH is one of three main credit bureaus in Ukraine. It offers a portfolio of products and solutions for credit risk management, expanding business opportunities, preventing fraud risks and NPL management improvement. Also, IBCH gives access to credit histories for individuals and legal entities.

“This investment shows Creditinfo’s renewed commitment to both the IBCH and Ukrainian financial market overall,” commented Seth Marks, Managing Director, Creditinfo Central & Eastern Europe. “We have been a partner of IBCH since launching in Ukraine. We have also established our credentials in more than 30 countries, also in the region, opening bureaus in Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and the Baltics. We hope that this new investment and our wealth of international experience will help us further entrench IBCH and the Creditinfo brand in the Ukrainian financial services space as we partner with lenders to drive financial access through the use of best practices in credit risk management and data protection. Ukraine is an ever-evolving and developing market with considerable growth potential. We are eager to play a role in aiding this growth.”

 Kateryna Danylchencko, IBCH General Manager, added, “this is a new important step forward for IBCH. Our team is energised by the opportunity to be a part of Creditinfo, and we hope to utilise the company’s expertise to assist us in the introduction of new products and services.”

About Creditinfo

Established in 1997 and headquartered in Reykjavík, Iceland, Creditinfo is a provider of credit information and risk management solutions worldwide. As one of the fastest-growing companies in its field, Creditinfo facilitates access to finance, through intelligent information, software and analytics solutions.

With more than over 30 credit bureaus running today, Creditinfo has the most considerable global presence in the field of credit risk management, with a significantly greater footprint than competitors. For decades it has provided business information, risk management and credit bureau solutions to some of the largest, lenders, governments and central banks globally to increase financial inclusion and generate economic growth by allowing credit access for SMEs and individuals.

 For more information, please visit www.creditinfo.com

Media Contacts:

Caterina Ponsicchi

Group Marketing Director

c.ponsicchi@creditinfo.com

Can KYC Bring Opportunity For Business Growth?

For many, due diligence checks and Know Your Customer (KYC) processes are simply seen as compliance requirements imposed by regulators that can add friction and cost to their business, but that is a flawed assessment. In fact, KYC has many advantages for business and can act as the differentiator needed for your business to survive and thrive in the increasingly digital, global economy.

In a market full of uncertainty, true understanding is a valuable commodity. Today, many organizations have been forced to re-evaluate what they need to do to ensure not just their longevity, but their continued success. Knowing the pressures that customers and prospects face, being able to support them through their challenges and shield your own business from unnecessary risk is key.

However, there are still too many treating KYC compliance like a tick box exercise, and not the competitive point of difference it can be.

The potential and possibilities that arise from a well-conceived and resourced compliance organization is remarkable. Whether it’s through the use of better data, fusing local data with global intelligence, or understanding the emerging threats from organized, financial criminal groups and working to counter them, good compliance can help businesses avoid the most damaging risks and seize the most lucrative opportunities.

At Creditinfo, we’ve long understood this. Our customers know that the combination of our decision analytics technology and access to a wide range of traditional and alternative data provides them with the tools they need to better understand their customers and take the appropriate steps to capitalize on the opportunities on their doorstep.

These opportunities are only ever going to increase, and those that become complacent on compliance, will begin to fall behind.

Tomorrow, on May 11th, we are hosting a webinar with leading experts on the regulatory environment and financial crime to delve into just this. Our panel of experts will discuss what organizations need to do to de-risk their operations and how they can set themselves up for future success.

This virtual panel will include speakers from PwC, Lexis Nexis, and The Dark Money Files, and will cover compliance technology, regulatory trends, and the ever-evolving threat landscape, to help you understand what you need to do to protect your organization from financial crime, and the opportunities better KYC processes can bring to your business.

To hear more about the benefits better KYC compliance could create for your business, register your attendance today.

You can also follow along on Twitter with the hashtag #CreditinfoKYC.

Credit Post-Covid

Historically, every time that there was a crisis, lessons were learnt. The Authorities, be they political or financial, rushed in to introduce and implement corrective regulations and legislation to either block legislative loop-holes or correct oversights that permitted players in their respective fields, but especially in the financial sector, to take advantage of same for their own individual benefit with little regard for the rest.

The lessons and improvements implemented by regulators and financial institutions since the  from the last financial have stood the banks and financial services in stronger position when facing the financial crisis which is following the health crisis.  Banks are reacting by using data insights through monitoring and early warning solutions to address problem debts before they escalate.

A few years later, with the introduction of strict regulatory measures, the requisite confidence and stability in financial markets was gradually established. Central banks are now closely monitoring these, issuing directives on a regular basis to further stabilize and impose tighter controls to prevent a repeat. Regulating banks is difficult, unfortunately, and there is always the risk that a similar crisis raises its head again.

This is a very simplistic reference to the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, which forced changes and tighter controls on the global financial markets.

Changing the scenario to the present day, COVID-19 pandemic, although different, in that it is more of a medical beast, has impacted the global population and, as a result, the global economy has turned out to be messier than the Financial Crisis of 2007-09.  Individuals who own and control both global economic and non-economic practices are the victims this time. Through its secondary effects, the pandemic, may also be considered as a financial crisis. The policies put in place to control and ultimately curtail the pandemic, have so far had limited success in curbing the spread, but they did manage to create havoc with the global economies.  Some industries, such as food distribution, benefited from rising demand, while others, such as telecommunications and pharmaceuticals, were unaffected and continued their operations, although maybe at a slower pace but certain sectors took a heavy beating.

The airline, travel, hospitality, leisure, and entertainment sectors have been hit the hardest with dramatic reduction in activity and with closures being the norm.

The airline industry, on its own, according to a KMPG report, estimate a revenue loss worth USD200 billion in 2020 and to prevent a total collapse, government assistance, worth USD200 billion is being considered.

However, the airline industry is just the beginning.  One has also to consider other businesses that are directly and indirectly linked.  Millions of individuals are affected – loss of jobs or reduced hours of work translate into less consumer spending, higher risks, defaults and similar. At this point, the Great Depression comes to mind, but the true impact of the pandemic will be gauged towards the end of 2021 and throughout 2022.

In these turbulent times, with losses expecting to continue until 2022 and possible, even beyond, risk management is crucial and extremely critical for all industry players. Despite, corporate bankruptcies still being rather low, further pandemic waves with the relative lockdown and restrictive policies would deplete remaining cash reserves and eventually increase bankruptcies.

The new normal will set in at different speeds as lockdowns are lifted, but this will also depend on the recession in each country and on the effect of restrictions on demand and supply.  Recoveries may vary by sectors, but severe economic necessities may induce Governments to loosen their restrictive policies in an effort to kick-start certain activities, in particular, the airline industry and travel, which indirectly would also re-activate the hospitality, leisure and entertainment sectors.

It is now more critical than ever that financial institutions and other market participants, recognize the value of using tools like a Credit Bureau. These credit bureaux deliver insights in the data such as credit scoring and financial transparency, that can identify riskier projects/individuals/businesses, and thus prevent defaults to the benefit of the lender and national stability, in general.

Now is the time to gain a better understanding of our local marketplace, and the speed in which information changes. We have to comprehend how our local marketplace will perform in the post COVID era. It is better to be informed than to continue blindly as the future is changing and businesses and individuals must adjust and act accordingly.

In the immediate future, credit risk assessments, will be based on real-time monitoring of sectoral and sub-sectoral situations, making historical data in previous known environments less important – COVID has taught us a tough lesson

Remy Damato,

Credit Reporting Manager, Creditinfo Malta.

In boosting businesses, we could spurt like Ferraris, but we’re moving at Turtle speed

The analysis of the use of funds and current tendencies in the country’s economy leads to the obvious conclusion that we use the available financial resources in Lithuania in a too conservative way, and, instead of the opportunity to exploit the situation and spurt at the capacity of Ferrari, we choose a safe but a very slow growth at the speed of a Turtle.

From a psychological point of view, the situation is understandable, since along with the usual risks – commercial, technological and many others, business today faces the biggest challenge of regulation.

Recalling the lessons of 2009-2011 crisis, both business companies and banks more often ground the management of their economic situation on risk minimization.  In other words, for reasons of caution, they would rather not grant a loan than allot time for a more thorough analysis of the situation.

However, a qualified and comprehensive risk management provide opportunities for business development, especially now, when we have a sufficient number of automated management tools based on data.

Several weeks ago, a survey carried out by the Bank of Lithuania (LB) showed that at the present moment, a more careful consideration should be given to hotels, restaurants, and part of real estate companies. However, the significantly reduced or discontinued funding has had a negative effect on an absolute majority of business sectors whose situation during the pandemic has not gotten worse and has even improved.

Capital adequacy is good, but a reluctance to lend money remains

Responsible lending constitutes the backbone of any economy, and Lithuanian business has learned to take a responsible attitude to loan repayments. For example, Lithuania is marked out among other countries of the European Union (EU) by the smallest – only 3% of all loan portfolio – part of business enterprises which have made use of a moratorium on loans declared in the spring of 2020.

In addition, according to the Bank of Lithuania, part of non-performing loans has been regularly decreasing and now has reached the lowest historical level of 1.5%. In other words, in their concern about high credit ratings and a good financial reputation, the enterprises are doing their utmost to repay both loans and interest on time.

With full knowledge of the aforementioned facts, what surprises, is a particularly prudent financing of business or strict conditions of granting loans, especially taking into account the fact that the population’s and enterprises’ deposits have reached record heights on a global scale. In Lithuania, the capital adequacy ratio of the bank sector having reached the highest bar of 25% in 2015, has remained at the top and currently fluctuates at around 22%.

The situation is changing dynamically, but every company must be evaluated separately

On the other hand, the analysis of the financial situation of enterprises warns that the situation in the market is changing dynamically. For example, if in 2020, 11% of enterprises entered the highest and high classes of bankruptcy risk, this year there are 17% of such enterprises. There is a greater probability that part of enterprises may fall behind on their payments. For example, in 2020 a high and the highest risk of payment delays was attributed to 18% of companies, however, this year the number of such enterprises has increased by 31%.

And still, the analysis of separate sectors provides more clarity. For example, the number of construction companies of high and the highest classes of risk has risen over the year from 19 % in (2020) to 23% in (2021). And in the transport sector from 15% to 23% respectively. A greater emphasis should be laid on the situation of trading companies. The companies of this sector have split into two blocs – companies whose activity was restricted and the financial situation was getting worse, and the ones whose situation was changing for the better.

Unfortunately, in the catering sector the situation is still the worst. Last year 30% of these companies were classified as having high or the highest risk, and this year this figure reached 45%. However, it is believed that a gradual loosening of business restrictions would enable the recovering of this sector.

The services sector is now doing well, – part of its enterprises of high and highest risk remains moderate, although it has increased by 6% to 9%. Every enterprise must be evaluated individually, and if the financial position and discipline are strong, there are no reasons for the discontinuation of financing such businesses.

We are living in many-speed economic conditions. When some enterprises are made to stop their activity, others experience a boom and have successfully moved their business to digital space. The EU business support measures have deferred the declaration of bankruptcy for part of enterprises. However, the situation can change even more dynamically when the states‘ support is withdrawn. This aspect makes one carefully supervise one‘s business partners, require quarterly financial reports, a record of the quality of transparent property and its declaration.

What rules would I most recommend to comply with? The enterprises which have the experience of assessing their partners, know that information in credit bureau systems which is updated every day, includes tens of various indicators, and algorithms which calculate creditworthiness and risk, evaluate more than 100 different parameters. However, at present, in evaluating the new partners‘ financial statements, activities or shareholders‘ business relationships, I would suggest paying particular attention to negative information. Check if there are no court actions, if the number of employees has not drastically decreased, and if there are no recorded arrears. Under the conditions of big flow of information your business could be assisted by an early warning system which would allow to see the threatening changes and thus, react immediately.

We have a sufficient number of tools of risk management, it is time to make a more efficient use of capital

Current technological innovations make it possible to both disclose and find information about the buyer‘s or partner‘s debts during a few seconds. Normally, the essential information about overdue payments is freely available. Therefore, I would urge again that every granting of credit should be considered separately. Evaluating the aforementioned figures, it becomes obvious that we have not used great possibilities to help economy recover as soon as possible. Guarding ourselves against a very small part of unreliable debtors, we punish a far bigger part of disciplined businesses.

An operative exchange of information about debtors could assist us and others in making more precise and quicker decisions as well as preventing a domino effect, when the debt of one enterprise establishes the whole chain of overdue payments.

Let us go back to strategies of a Turtle or Ferrari. There are different tools of risk management. It is possible to insure oneself against taking on any risk. In this case the enterprise will grow slowly.

Or, on the contrary, one can use all the capacities and possibilities of Ferrari. This car has not only fast acceleration and high speed, but also a well-operating brake system which in business, is analogous to data-based risk management.

There is no doubt that crediting must be responsible and take into consideration all the risks. However, at present there are enough reliable tools which assist in making optimal decisions. Therefore we can better employ capital, promote the country‘s business and stimulate its economy.

Jekaterina Rojaka,

Chief Commercial Officer,

Creditinfo Lithuania